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Uncovering the global network of economic policy uncertainty
Affiliation:1. Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, 5500 N St Louis Ave, Chicago, IL, 60625, USA;2. School of Economics & Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;3. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;4. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Abstract:This study uncovers the static and dynamic network of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) across 17 developed and emerging economies. We build a centrality network using the minimal spanning tree (MST) as well as a dependency network using partial correlations. Results from the MST show that EPU exhibits some degree of geographical connections with EPUs in seven countries in the sample directly linked to the US EPU. Evidence from dynamic time-varying MST reveals that the nature and dominance of the EPU network have changed significantly over time. Further, the US and German EPUs dominate a close-knit global policy uncertainty network with the highest net (To and From) transmitter of information flow in the dependency network. Greece, Russia, and Brazil are the top three net receivers of information in the global network of EPU. The policy implication of these results relates to the renewed and ongoing international debate on policy coordination.
Keywords:Economic policy uncertainty  Minimal spanning tree  Partial correlation  Dependency network
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