Long run agricultural land expansion,booms and busts |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jia 11, Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing 100101, China;2. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street N.W., Washington, DC 20006, USA;3. Freeman Spogli Institute, Wood Institute, Stanford University, California 95305, USA;4. Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph, Gordon Street, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada;5. Institutional Performance Evaluation Unit at the Secretariat of Strategy and Management, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Brasila, Brazil;1. George Washington University, United States;2. Moscow State University, Russia;1. Departamento de Zoología y Antropología Física, Facultad de Biología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, C/José Antonio Nováis 2, 28040 Madrid, Spain;2. Museum of Comparative Zoology, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;3. Environmental Toxicology and Biology, Facultad de Ciencias UNED, C/Senda del Rey 9, 28040 Madrid, Spain;1. University of Alberta, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, 1-26 Earth Sciences Building, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2E3, Canada;2. University of Guelph, School of Environmental Design & Rural Development, Landscape Architecture Bldg 121, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada;1. Key Laboratory of Land Use, China Institute of Land Surveying and Planning, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China;2. Department of Ornamental Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;1. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, A.C. Carretera México-Toluca Núm 3655 col. Lomas de Santa Fe, Ciudad de Mexico, CP 01210, Mexico;2. Centro Transdisciplinario Universitario para la Sustentabilidad (CENTRUS)-Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico;3. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Proyecto de Evaluación y Análisis de Políticas, Insurgentes Sur 813, piso 12. col. Nápoles, Ciudad deMexico, CP 03810, Mexico |
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| Abstract: | Agricultural land expansion is a prominent feature in today’s developing countries. It is associated with a structural pattern of land use in many remote land-abundant regions where large-scale commercial primary product activities coexist with increased concentration of smallholders in more marginal areas. The result may be boom-bust cycles of development. If these phenomena are widespread across developing countries, then long-run expansion of agricultural land could be associated with lower levels of real income per capita, which may also fluctuate with prolonged expansion. A panel analysis conducted over 1961–2015 for 98 developing economies fails to reject this hypothesis. Policies should aim to decouple socio-economic gains through agricultural development from continued land expansion, and greater investments are needed to support smallholder agriculture, land distribution and livelihoods in these areas. |
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| Keywords: | Boom-bust cycles Developing countries Frontier Land expansion Land use Sustainable development |
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