Land use and land cover scenarios: An interdisciplinary approach integrating local conditions and the global shared socioeconomic pathways |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Farming Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands;2. Forest and Nature Conservation Policy, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;3. Department of Soil Science, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570900, Brazil;4. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands;1. School of Environmental Sustainability, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL, 60660, USA;2. Department of Geography and Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269-4148, USA;1. Environmental Geography Group, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands;2. Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network, Addis Ababa University, P.O.Box 80773, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;1. Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB, Wageningen, the Netherlands;2. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT), Faculty of Social Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, 4000 DR, Rotterdam, the Netherlands;3. Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, MK43 0AL, UK;4. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK;5. Vienna, Austria;1. Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA;2. Environmental Studies Program, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA;3. Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, USA;4. Yale School of Forestry and Management, New Haven, CT, USA;5. Department of Geography and Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA;6. Department of Natural Resources Science, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, USA;7. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA;8. Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, Netherlands;1. U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA;2. South Dakota State University, Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence (GSCE), 1021 Medary Avenue, Brookings, SD 57007, USA;3. University of Wisconsin-Madison, SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA;4. Conservation Science Partners, 5 Old Town Square, Fort Collins, CO 80524 USA;5. U.S. Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Tacoma, WA 98402 USA |
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| Abstract: | Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have profound impacts on the functioning of (agro)ecosystems and have potential to mitigate global climate change. However, we still lack interdisciplinary methods to project future LULC scenarios at spatial scales that are relevant for local decision making and future environmental assessments. Here we apply an interdisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit projections of LULC at a resolution of 30 × 30 m informed by historic relationships between LULC and their key drivers, within the context of the four qualitative scenarios of global shared socioeconomic pathways. We apply this methodology to a case study in the Zona da Mata, Brazil, which has a history of major LULC changes. The analysis of LULC changes from 1986 to 2015 indicates that pasture area decreased from 76 to 58 % of total area, while forest areas increased from 18 to 24 %, and coffee from 3 to 11 %. Environmental protection legislation, rural credit for smallholder farmers, and demand for agricultural and raw products were identified as main drivers of LULC changes. Projected LULC for 2045 strongly depends on the global socioeconomic pathway scenarios, and forest and coffee areas may increase substantially under strong government measures in the environmentally conscious Green Road scenario or decrease in the high consumption Rocky Road scenario. Our study shows that under the set of drivers during the past three decades reforestation can go hand in hand with increase of agricultural production, but that major and contrasting changes in LULC can be expected depending on the socioeconomic pathway that will be followed in the future. To guide this process, LULC scenarios at the local scale can inform the planning of local and regional development and forest conservation. |
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| Keywords: | Land use Public policies Future scenarios Interdisciplinarity Forest transition |
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