Population trends and desertification risk in a Mediterranean region, 1861-2017 |
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| Affiliation: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China;2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt;4. Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida/IFAS/West Florida Research and Education Center, 5988 Hwy 90, Bldg 4900, Milton, FL 32583, USA;5. Tigray Agricultural Research Institute, Mekelle 492, Ethiopia.;6. Department of Geography and Geographic Information Systems, Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt;1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;2. Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele 848300, Xinjiang, China;3. Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresource in Arid Zone, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China;4. School of hydropower and information engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China;5. College of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China;6. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between population dynamics and desertification risk in advanced economies is increasingly dependent on the mutual interplay of socioeconomic forces at regional and local scales. Assuming that specific, long-term demographic dynamics are associated with a given level of desertification risk, the present study investigates population trends between 1861 and 2017 and the spatial linkage with the level of desertification risk in Southern Italy, a European region where more than 20 % of land is exposed to degradation processes. Areas classified at the highest risk of desertification experienced intense population growth between 1951 and 1981. Reflecting the latest stage of the first demographic transition in Italy, such dynamics have caused an increasing human pressure on coastal districts, peri-urban areas and flat rural land. Since the early 1980s, population growth was less intense and more heterogeneous over space. Such dynamics led to a discontinuous urban expansion and the formation of a ‘third space’ – neither urban nor rural – with a consequent increase in the rate of land take. These outcomes, typical of the early stage of the second demographic transition, were mostly uncorrelated with the level of desertification risk. The spatial association between population dynamics and desertification risk characteristic of the first demographic transition in Southern Italy outlines the importance of regional developmental policies aimed at rebalancing territorial disparities for land degradation mitigation in the Mediterranean region. |
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| Keywords: | Population density Demographic history Southern Italy Long-term analysis |
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