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Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Management, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy;2. Department of Economics and Social Science, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy;1. Department of Financial Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, 16499, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Applied Mathematics & Institute of Natural Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, 17104, Republic of Korea;3. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea;1. Texas A&M University, Department of Finance, Mays Business School, College Station, TX, 77843, USA;2. University of Valladolid (Spain), NRU Higher School of Economics (Russia), School of Business and Economics, Avda. Valle Del Esgueva 6, 47011, Valladolid, Spain;3. University of Valladolid, School of Business and Economics, Avda. Valle Del Esgueva 6, 47011, Valladolid, Spain;1. Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, 2-1 Rokko-dai, Nada, Kobe, 657-8501, Japan;2. Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, 6-1, Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka, 567-0047, Japan;1. CREM UMR 6211, Université de Caen Normandie, France;2. ICN Business School-CEREFIGE, Nancy, France |
| Abstract: | The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity shock Liquidity premium UIP failure Forward premium puzzle Forward discount bias Liquidity risk-augmented UIP F31 F41 G15 |
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