The impacts of population and agglomeration development on land use intensity: New evidence behind urbanization in China |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Land Resources Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China;2. Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, and Social Science Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA;3. Research Center for Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, 100810, China;1. Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong;2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;3. Jilin Provincial Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology, Changchun, China;1. Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Department of Geography, Lab for Landscape Ecology, Rudower Chaussee 16, 12489 Berlin, Germany;2. Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research − UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;3. Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research − UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, D-06120 Halle (Saale), Germany;4. Codematix GmbH, Felsbachstrasse 5/7, D-07745 Jena, Germany;1. Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, China;2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;3. Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, NC, United States;1. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006, China;2. Guangdong Party Institute of Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510053, China;3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China;1. College of Geography and Environment, Collaborative Innovation Center of Human-Nature and Green Development in Universities of Shandong, Shandong Normal University, No. 1 Da Xue Road, Jinan, Shandong Province, 250038, PR China;2. North Dakota State University, Fargo, United States;3. Center for Resources, Environment and Food Security, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China;4. Center for Land Resource Research in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, 710119, PR China;5. College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450045, PR China |
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| Abstract: | The impacts of population growth and agglomeration development on urbanization are complex. They cannot be effectively disentangled by simple fixed-effect regression analyses. This study introduces the land use intensity (LUI) metric to measure urbanization, and further applies quantile and threshold regression models to examine the impacts of population (POP) and agglomeration development (AGD) on land use intensity using a sample of 297 Chinese cities. The results reveal the heterogeneous effects that POP and AGD have on LUI. Variation is also observed in the effects of POP and AGD on LUI by POP/AGD intervals. As POP increases, its pressure on LUI increases. In contrast, the accumulative effects of development are beneficial in restraining overdevelopment of land resources within a specific range. The findings suggest that understanding complex human and development effects provides valuable insights, references, and implications for urban development and land use policies, which can guide cities with greater potential land development space in reducing the risk of unsustainable urbanization. Policies are recommended for ecological construction, city grouping, and sustainable land use. |
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| Keywords: | urbanization population agglomeration development land use intensity quantile regression threshold regression |
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