World economic convergence: Does the estimation methodology matter? |
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Institution: | 1. University of South Australia, Australia;2. Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne, Australia;3. University of Mazandaran, Iran;4. Shahid Beheshti University, Iran;1. Department of Management, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy;2. Department of Economics and Social Science, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy;1. Department of Financial Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, 16499, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Applied Mathematics & Institute of Natural Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, 17104, Republic of Korea;3. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea;1. Texas A&M University, Department of Finance, Mays Business School, College Station, TX, 77843, USA;2. University of Valladolid (Spain), NRU Higher School of Economics (Russia), School of Business and Economics, Avda. Valle Del Esgueva 6, 47011, Valladolid, Spain;3. University of Valladolid, School of Business and Economics, Avda. Valle Del Esgueva 6, 47011, Valladolid, Spain |
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Abstract: | An extant empirical literature produces evidence on economic convergence using methods that assume an underlying deterministic trend. Competing approaches that assume a stochastic trend, however, produce only limited evidence of economic convergence. In this paper we address this puzzling feature of the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of economic convergence using three methodologies that cover all possible underlying assumptions: deterministic, stochastic, and combination trends. We also develop a method for an overall Stochastic Convergence Rate Index, that combines the outcomes of alternative stochastic tests and provides a single measure of the intensity of stochastic convergence. We consider 135 economies over the period 1980–2017. We find that economic convergence occurs at a global level through the formation of convergence clubs, and economic convergence emerges as a deterministic rather than a stochastic process. Tests that ignore deterministic trends tend to understate the evidence for convergence. |
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Keywords: | Economic growth Economic convergence Beta-convergence Stochastic convergence log(t) convergence O47 C32 C33 |
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