Smallholder farms’ adaptation to the impacts of climate change: Evidence from China’s Loess Plateau |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, 510006 Guangzhou, China;2. Discipline of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia;1. East-West Center, Honolulu, HI, United States;2. Department of Geography, UC Santa Barbara, United States;3. University of Colorado, Population Program and Geography Department, United States;4. University of Florida, Department of Geography and the Emerging Pathogens Institute, United States;1. China Institute for Rural Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P.R.China;2. College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, P.R.China;3. School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, P.R.China;1. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, and State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Regional Eco-process and Function Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;2. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture of China, Beijing 100193, China;1. School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, PR China;2. Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;1. Agricultural and Resource Economics, UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia;2. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy, UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia;3. Department of Biology, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia;4. Graduate School of Global Food Resources, Hokkaido University, Kita 15, Nishi 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0815, Japan |
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| Abstract: | The impacts of climate change on agriculture in developing countries will depend on the extent to which agricultural production in those regions adapts to climate change’s influences. This study uses a whole-farm land use optimisation approach to explore climate change impacts, when including adaptation, on farm profitability, production and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Loess Plateau of northern China. The results show that with adaptation activities, the losses in smallholder farm profitability caused by the climate change could be moderate. Declining rainfall results in land use changes that generate higher on-farm GHG emissions with the most economically beneficial adaptations. With 5 % or 10 % decline in annual rainfall, the introduction of agricultural carbon tax would generate substantial reduction in on-farm GHG emissions. With 30 % rainfall reduction, agricultural carbon tax is not likely to bring about considerable emission reduction. The economically optimised land uses are generally sensitive to potential changes. When rainfall reductions appear, there is a clear trend toward reducing cropping area and transiting to pasture. With 5–10% rainfall reductions, increasing agricultural carbon tax with same rainfall reduction leads to the expansion in cropping enterprises. However, with 30 % rainfall reduction, land allocations are not sensitive to agricultural carbon tax. When with declining annual rainfall, in the optimal enterprises more oats-pasture rotations are employed to reduce wheat dominated rotations. Besides land use patterns, adaptations through altering farm management practices are also necessary. The economically optimised sheep flock would be increased considerably with declining rainfall. Overall, policymakers are suggested to initial more educational schemes to tell smallholder farmers how to make the best use of available adaptation strategies and consider changes in climate when design and implement agricultural policy. |
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| Keywords: | Smallholder farmers’ adaptation Dryland mixed agriculture Climate change impacts Whole-farm land use optimimisation modelling Loess Plateau |
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