An econometric analysis of health care reform in the U.S.

This paper simulates the effects of funding a comprehensive health plan (CHP) on consumer spending in the U.S. using a demographically enhanced dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System model. Quarterly observations on personal consumption expenditures and the relevant price indices of seven major commodity and service groups in the U.S. for the period 1963. 1 through 1989.4 comprise our data set. Our results show that the CHP financing causes no significant adjustment on the demand-side of the economy, i.e., consumer expenditures on the seven major commodity and service groups would decrease slightly in the short run under the CHP financing. (JEL D00)