| 计划生育、城市化与我国房地产市场的发展 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李雄军,姚树洁. 计划生育、城市化与我国房地产市场的发展[J]. 当代经济科学, 2011, 0(5): 74-77,126,127 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李雄军 姚树洁 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061／西安电子科技大学人文学院,陕西西安710071
2. 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061／英国诺丁汉大学当代中国学学院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 西安电子科技大学基本科研业务费资助项目(K50510080020) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 计划生育由于影响人口的增长与人口结构的变化从而在一定时期推高房地产需求，但长期将缩减房地产需求；城市化由于影响人口的迁移从而长期地推高房地产需求，但其边际效应也将趋于递减。所以，随着时间的推移，房地产市场的供求关系向供过于求转变。而目前存在两个重要的加大房地产市场杠杆的因素：“打捆贷款”与“预售制”，他们在供不应求的时候通过加速供给的形成而使各方皆大欢喜，在供过于求时却放大了房地产市场的金融风险。
|
| 关 键 词： | 计划生育 城市化 房地产市场 |
Family Planning,Urbanization and the Development of Real Estate Market in China |
| |
| LI Xiong-jun,,YAO Shu-jie. Family Planning,Urbanization and the Development of Real Estate Market in China[J]. Modern Economic Science, 2011, 0(5): 74-77,126,127 |
| |
| Authors: | LI Xiong-jun YAO Shu-jie |
| |
| Affiliation: | LI Xiong-jun1,2,YAO Shu-jie1,3(1.School of Economics & Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,710061 Xi'an,China,2.Institute of literature,Xidian University,710071 Xi'an,3.School of Contemporary Chinese Studies,University of Nottingham,UK) |
| |
| Abstract: | Family planning reduces the demand for real estate in the long run while urbanization increases it in the long run with decreasing marginal utility.Thus,in the long term supply would surpass demand in real estate market.However,two important factors,whole loan to local governmentand presale system,are currently considered as the leverage of real estate market.These two factors make every party in the market happy during excess demand while increase financial risks during excess supply. |
| |
| Keywords: | Family Planning Urbanization Real Estate Market |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
