中国省、市、自治区GDP份额演变及其影响因素分析

基于新经济地理理论,本文应用1978～2005年中国各省市区面板数据,对省级区域GDP份额进行了分析,构建了动态时空模型,建立了多区域经济体的结构分析框架,并将其应用于区域经济增长的动态效应分析,从而将区域经济增长的动态效应分解为相邻效应和整体效应。实证研究发现,无论是宏观经济增长效应还是区域相邻效应,都对中国省、市、自治区经济集聚具有很好的解释力。这对思考中国地区间差距问题提供了一些启示。

Analysis of Chinese Provincial GDP Shares and Their factors

Based on a new economic geography framework, this paper explores the causes of provincial GDP share changes in China using the provincial panel data during 1978-2005. The main findings indicate that some macroeconomic forces are operating through time into Chinese regional system since positive and negative effects are detected at both economy-wide and neighborhood levels. Further, the findings show that a new taxonomy of the Chinese regions could provide some guidance for the development of appropriate measures for regional economic policy.