住宅存量估计与房地产泡沫

采用较大规模的数据从需求（住宅价格增长率,人均收入增长率,房价收入比等方面）和供给（现有住宅总套数的估算,总户籍户数、常住人口户数等方面）对我国35个城市的住宅市场进行分析后发现,无论是住宅的需求方面（房价收入比指标）还是供给方面（实际住宅存量,住宅存量与人口户数比率）,都显示出我国房价确实存在较大的泡沫.

Study on House Stock Estimation and Real Estate Bubbles

Using 35 cities＇ data in China to consider the problem both in demand aspect （ the home price growth rate, average growth rate of disposable income per capita, and the ratio of home prices to income etc. ） and supply aspect （ the estima- tion of house stock, total household number of Hukou, total household number of Residents etc. ）, this paper finds that： all clues, no matter in demand （ratio of home prices to income） or in supply （the numbers of house stock, ratio of the number of house stock to the number of population） show that there are bubbles in real estate market in China.