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Optimal growth under model uncertainty
Institution:1. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;2. Laboratory for Low-carbon Intelligent Governance, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;3. Department of Finance, Business School, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China;4. China Export & Credit Insurance Corp, Beijing 100033, China
Abstract:The optimal growth of a wealth process toward a goal is studied under ambiguous markets with first- and second-order moment uncertainties relating to stock returns. Optimal strategies and value functions are solved explicitly. A verification theorem is proved to show that the results solve the original stochastic control problem. Quantitative analyses of the investment strategies indicate that a rational individual with ambiguity aversion reduces market participation when return and volatility are uncorrelated, while there is an exception for synchronous return and volatility. The welfare of shorting a discounted reward is computed, which demonstrates that in an ambiguous pricing economy, investors can generate a positive premium via appropriate asset allocations.
Keywords:Optimal investment  Kelly criterion  Ambiguity aversion  Model uncertainty
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