Export expansion and intergenerational education mobility: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of China's export expansion during 2000–2007 on the local intergenerational education mobility. We construct prefecture-level export shocks, by exploiting variations in national cross-industry export changes and cross-prefecture industrial employment. Empirical results suggest that prefectures experiencing larger export shocks are more likely to have higher intergenerational education mobility. The baseline results stand when we use alternative measures for educational outcomes, consider the migration situations, or include more controls. Using the intergenerational mobility framework proposed by Becker et al. (2018), we explain and empirically test how income effect and substitution effect of export expansions influence education mobility. The mechanism testing suggests that the income effect is the dominant force underlying the results.