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Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom
Affiliation:1. Department of Accounting, College of Business, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132, USA;2. Shenzhen Audencia Business School, WeBank Institute of Fintech, and Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (SZ), Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China;3. Finance Department, Audencia Business School, Nantes 44300, France;5. Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, UK;1. Business Administration Department, IQRA University, Islamabad, Pakistan;2. Department of Business & Management, LUISS Guido Carli University, Rome, Italy;1. Urban Institute, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan;2. Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore;3. Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, USA;1. Nagoya City University, Japan;2. University of Tsukuba, Japan
Abstract:This paper documents that both domestic and cross-country economic policy uncertainty have significant impacts on the behaviours of domestic analysts in the United Kingdom. Specifically, domestic economic policy uncertainty has significant negative impacts on analyst earnings forecast accuracy, dispersion, and both analyst recommendation upgrades and downgrades, whereas it has no significant impact on analyst coverage in the United Kingdom. An industry analysis shows that the effects of policy uncertainties on analyst behaviours vary across industries. Moreover, European and global economic policy uncertainty have similar cross-country impacts as U.K. policy uncertainty on analyst behaviours in the United Kingdom, whereas U.S. policy uncertainty exhibits different impacts. This study presents novel and comprehensive evidence of the impacts of policy uncertainty on an important information intermediary that has significant influences on capital market efficiency, providing practical implications for investors, analysts, corporate managers, and policy makers.
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