基于NPP-VIIRS的中国电力消费估算

针对夜间灯光数据用于估算城市电力消费量存在精度不足的问题,提出了波士顿夜光模型。选择国内176个城市为研究区域,以2019年NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光产品为数据源,将第三产业作为波士顿矩阵的分类依据,将研究区城市分为明星城市、金牛城市、问号城市和瘦狗城市4类,进而估算全社会电力消费量。估算结果表明,该模型较于传统灯光模型的估算精度更高。按照相对误差的大小,将全部城市划分为高精度、中精度和低精度城市3种类型,波士顿夜光模型的高精度和中精度城市数量多于传统灯光模型,而低精度城市数量则一样多。

Estimation of China''s Electricity Consumption Based on NPP-VIIRS

Aiming at the problem of insufficient accuracy of night lighting data used to estimate urban power consumption, a Boston luminous model is proposed. 176 cities in mainland China was selected as the research area, the NPP-VIIRS night lighting products in 2019 were taken as the data source, the tertiary industry was taken as the classification basis of the Boston matrix, and the research area cities were divided into four categories: star cities, Taurus cities, question mark cities and thin dog cities, and then the whole society electricity consumption was estimated . The estimation results show that this model is more accurate than the traditional lighting model. According to the size of the relative error, all cities are divided into three types: high-precision, medium-precision and low-precision cities. The number of high-precision and medium-precision cities in the Boston luminous model is more than that of the traditional lighting model, while the number of low-precision cities is the same.