基于半参数广义可加模型的社会消费品零售总额影响因素研究

基于半参数广义可加模型的思想,对全国社会消费品零售总额的影响因素进行了研究。首先运用灰色关联分析和单变量分析筛选出2个非线性因素和3个线性因素,发现两个非线性项之间存在交互效应,最终建立含有交互项的半参数广义可加模型,且模型的R²达到97.7%,说明模型具有极高的解释能力。结果表明,M1、GDP和农村家庭居民人均可支配收入对全国社会消费品零售总额具有正线性影响;M2和全国人均可支配收入具有非线性影响;人均可支配收入较低时,M2越大会使得社会消费品零售总额越低。

Research on Influencing Factors of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods Based on Semi-Parametric Generalized Additive Model

Based on the idea of a semi-parametric generalized additive model, the factors influencing the national total retail sales of consumer goods are examined. Firstly, grey relational analysis and univariate analysis were used to screen out two nonlinear factors and three linear factors, and interaction effects were found between the two nonlinear terms. Finally, a semi-parametric generalized additive model containing interaction terms was established, and R-squared of the model reaches 97.7%, indicating that the model has extremely high explanatory ability. The results are as follows. M1, GDP and per capita disposable income of rural households have positive linear effects on the total retail sales of consumer goods in China. The influence of M2 and national per capita disposable income is non-linear. When per capita disposable income is low, the larger M2 is, the lower the total retail sales of consumer goods.