人民币汇率的中长期走势

近期人民币汇率贬值幅度较大,引起市场广泛关注。作为基本的宏观价格变量,汇率牵一发而动全身,不仅影响宏观经济走势,还通过国内外商品比价的变化影响经济结构。本文分析了人民币汇率变动原因及人民币贬值对经济的影响,估计了汇率的中长期走势。

The Medium and Long-term Trend of RMB Exchange Rate

Recently the extent of the depreciation of RMB exchange rate is large, which causes a wide attention. As the basic macro variable price, the exchange rate is extremely important, which not only affects the macroeconomic situation but also affects the economic structure via the parity of domestic and foreign commodity price. The paper analyzes the reasons of RMB exchange rate changes and the impact of the depreciation of RMB exchange rate on the economy, and estimates the medium and long-term trend of the exchange rate.