储蓄不足与供给约束型经济态势——近代中国经济运行的基本前提研究

多角度的考察表明,近代中国的总需求拉升价格的力度远大于总供给下压价格的力度,产出增长能力较弱;本币升值可以改善贸易收支,贸易条件成立;出口和进口的汇率弹性绝对值之和远小于1,马歇尔—勒纳条件不成立。因此,近代中国经济呈现供给约束型经济态势,总供给曲线的斜度应该是陡峭的。于是,在使用经济学理论框架分析近代中国经济时,应首先考虑所运用的理论之前提假设是否与近代中国的经济态势一致,从而避免产生南辕北辙的结论。

Savings Shortage and Supply-constrained Economic Trend: A Research on Basic Premise of Economic Operation in Modern China

Multi-angle studies show that the level of price increase driven by aggregate demand is higher than the level of price reduction caused by aggregate supply in modern china,but the effect on the output is weak.An appreciation of home currency can promote the trade balance and the terms of trade are formed.The sum of the absolute value of exchange rate elasticity of import and export is far less than 1,and Marshall-Lerner condition does not hold.Therefore,the basic premise of China's modern economy is a suppl...