地区安全生产的经济社会风险因子分析——基于我国面板数据的实证分析

文章基于经济社会学与安全科学双重视角，探讨地区安全生产风险因子问题。解释变量为经济社会风险源中的10个因子，被解释变量为地区亿元GDP安全事故死亡率，分析的数据为2005—2007年各省市地区相关指标的面板数据，主要采用OLS、REM、FLS等回归分析法探讨各经济社会风险因子与地区安全生产的相关关系。研究结果表明：地区人均GDP、地区GDP增长率、地区产业结构系数、地区城市化水平、地区从业人员业务素质对亿元GDP安全事故死亡率在近三年内有反向关系；地区第二产业从业人员占比、地区高危行业增加值占比与亿元GDP安全事故死亡率之间具有正向关系；地区城镇人口密度与地区安全生产事故死亡率的关系微弱。

The Analysis of Economic and Social Risk Factors for Regional Production Safety

As the time goes by, issues caused by regional produc.tion safety are gaining more and more attention from people in politics and government, academy, industry and society. However, only a few researebes foeus on eennomic and social risk faetnrs. Considering this weakness, this paper studies on risk factors of the regional production safty based on economic sociology and secure science. In order to discuss the relationship between various economic social risk factors and regional production safty, this paper chooses ten factors as variables and the mortality of regional production safety accident beyond RMB100 million GDP as parameter. By using the regression analysis approach, namely OLS, REM, FLS, we tests the panel data of provinces in China from 2005 to 2007. Our research concludes that regional average GDP, the growth rate of regional GDP, regional industrial structure cuefficient, the level of urhanization and the working ability of employers bad rcverse relations with the mortality of regional production safety aecident beyond RMB100 million GDP in recent 3 years; Howew;r, the ratio of employment in the second industry to the one in total industry and the increase prodaction of high risky industry had inverse relations with the mortality of regional production safety accident beyond RMB100 million GDP; Moreover, the density of population has weak relation with the mortality of regional prnduetion safety accident.