Systemic risk network of Chinese financial institutions |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Management and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;2. I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada;1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, Anhui, PR China;2. Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education, Hefei 230009, Anhui, PR China;3. School of Statistics, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai 264005, Shandong, PR China |
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| Abstract: | The Chinese stock market crash in June 2015 has demonstrated necessary to improve understanding of systemic risk from the perspective of financial network. This study constructs a tail risk network to present overall systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions, given the macroeconomic and market externalities. Employing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method of high-dimensional models, our results show that firm's idiosyncratic risk can be affected by its connectedness with other institutions. The risk spillover effect from other companies is the main driving factor of firm-specific risk, comparing with macroeconomic state, firm characteristics and historical price movement. The number of connections between institutions significantly increases during June 2014 to June 2016. Moreover, we utilize the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test significance of systemic risk beta based on tail risk and further rank the systemic risk contribution. Finally, we test the determinants of systemic risk contribution in a forward-looking way. Regulators could detect those firms that are most threatening to the stability of system. |
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