Chemicals and energy: The next 25 years

The chemical industry can no longer rely on a rapid expansion or production based on a single feedstock. New sources of raw materials and energy will have to be used. The uncertainties include costs, social and political factors, new competitors, and the developing botanical and biochemical technologies. The author examines energy use in the OECD area and discusses the factors affecting energy efficiency. He concludes that the chemical industry is likely to maintain a petrochemical base much longer than might be expected. Although competition from Eastern Europe is imminent, OPEC products are unlikely to have a significant impact before 1987. For the next decade the growth rate of the chemical industry in Western Europe will probably be around 5%. Options after petrochemicals include a return to the pathways used 30 years ago, and the new possibilities promised by the use of shale oil, nuclear power, and natural products. At present oil prices, coal is not competitive above about $\text{\$10}\text{ton}$, and for the rest of the century the upper limit is around $\text{\$20}\text{ton}$.