中国城市化发展与重工业扩张的协整分析

城市化的快速发展和重化工业的高速扩张成为推动中国社会经济发展的两大引擎。文章运用1978—2005年的数据,通过协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验方法,从实证角度研究了中国城市化进程与重工业发展之间的动态相关性以及因果关系。结果显示,中国城市化与重化工业发展之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且二者之间具有双向因果关系,即城市化发展会引起重工业规模扩大,重工业的扩张也会推动城市化水平的提高。协整回归方程进一步表明,城市化水平提高1%,重工业总产值相应增加5%;而重工业总产值每增加1%,会促进城市化水平提高0.2%。

Co-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF URBANIZATION DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY INDUSTRY EXPAND

Fast development of urbanization and quick expanding of heavy industry are two engines to promote China society and economy advance.The paper using data from 1978 to 2005,researches dynamic relativity and causality between urbanization and heavy industry development from positive view,by co-integration analysis and Granger causality test.Positive analysis result indicates there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization and heavy industry development,and there is bidirectional Granger causality between them.Urbanization increases 1%,heavy industry's total output value improves 5%,and heavy industry's total output value enhances 1%,urbanization increases 0.2%.