Statistical modeling of land-cover changes based on key socio-economic indicators |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Applied Sciences Bingen, Berlinstr. 109, D-55411 Bingen, Germany;2. Division of Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Justus-Liebig-University of Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, D-35392 Giessen, Germany;1. Global Development Institute, School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK;2. China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China;1. Department of Neurology, Klinikum Ludwigshafen, Germany;2. Oral and Maxillofacial Diseases, University of Helsinki, Finland;3. Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany;4. Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany;5. Clinical Chemistry, Klinikum Ludwigshafen, Germany;6. Department of Neurology, University of Heidelberg, Germany;1. Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;2. Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, School of Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;3. Key Laboratory for Thermal Science and Power Engineering of Ministry of Education, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | Landscapes are complex human–environment systems operating at spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability. Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study, we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999 in a German marginal rural landscape.We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing data representing factors of demography, employment, economy, infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations between time series of land-cover data and of socio-economic data were modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors. The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems. |
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