中国环境规制对碳排放影响的空间异质性分析

基于1997—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,将环境规制分成命令型、市场型和自愿型三类,以核密度估计分析碳排放分布的动态变化,采用空间杜宾模型探究了不同环境规制对碳排放影响的空间异质性。结果表明:1997—2017年中国三种环境规制与碳排放量变化表现同步增长,碳排放区域差异明显,命令型环境规制占据主体,市场型环境规制波动性变化特征明显,自愿型环境规制稳步增长;碳排放和环境规制具有明显的空间自相关特征,并且环境规制对邻近地区碳排放减少或增长的影响能力增强;三种环境规制对碳排放的影响均存在空间溢出,相比较而言,市场型环境规制的正向溢出效应最为明显,不同环境规制影响的区域差异特征表现为:命令型环境规制"东部>中部>西部",市场型环境规制"东部>西部>中部",自愿型环境规制"西部>东部>中部"。

Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis of the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Carbon Emissions in China

Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2017,environmental regulations were divided into three types:command,market and voluntary.The dynamic changes of carbon emission distribution were analyzed with Kernel density estimates.The spatial Dubin model was used to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of different environmental regulations on carbon emissions.The results show that:from 1997 to 2017,China’s various environmental regulations and carbon emissions showed a synchronous growth,with significant regional differences in carbon emissions,the dominant role of command-based environmental regulations,the volatility and change characteristics of market-based environmental regulations,and the steady growth of voluntary environmental regulations;carbon emission and environmental regulation have obvious spatial autocorrelation characteristics,and environmental regulation has enhanced the ability to reduce or increase carbon emission in neighboring regions;the impact of the three environmental regulations on carbon emissions has spatial spillovers.In comparison,the positive spillover effect of market-based environmental regulation is the most obvious.The regional differences in the impact of different environmental regulations are as follows:for mandatory environmental regulation"East>Central>Western",for market-based environmental regulation"East>Western>Central",and for voluntary environmental regulation"West>East>Central".