水—能源关联下长三角地区用水量变化因素分解研究

当前我国水资源面临的形势十分严峻,水资源短缺已成为制约经济社会可持续发展的主要瓶颈。以我国水资源消耗总量和强度双控目标为背景,选取长三角地区三省一市作为研究对象,基于水—能源关联关系视角,使用广义迪氏指数分解法对长三角地区四个省市用水量变化影响因素进行分解,并分析各驱动因素在用水量过程中的贡献差异,以期识别水资源消耗总量控制的关键推动力。研究发现影响长三角地区四个省市用水量变化的因素基本一致,但各省市间存在差别。其中区域经济发展水平,能源消耗量,人口规模促进地区用水量的增加,用水强度、人均地区经济发展水平以及能源强度抑制地区用水量增加,水—能源关联度总体上抑制地区用水量增加,人均用水量从逐年分析来看,对用水量变化无明显规律,有时抑制,有时促进用水量变化。

Decomposition Analysis of Water Use in Yangtze River Delta Region:A Perspective from Water-Energy Nexus

The current situation of water resources in China is very serious.What’s more,water shortage has become the main bottleneck which hinders the economic and social sustainable development.Against the background of total and intensity of water resources consumption in China,we choose three provinces and one city in Yangtze River Delta Region as the research object.Based on the perspective from Water-Energy Nexus and for the first time,the influence factors of water consumption change in four provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region were decomposed by using the generalized Divisia index method.The contribution difference of each drivers of total water consumption control is accessed.Besides the study found that the factors influencing the change of water consumption in the four provinces and cities in Yangtze River Delta Region were basically the same,but there were differences among the provinces and cities.Regional economic development level,energy consumption,the increase of the population scale promoting regional water consumption,water intensity,per capita regional economic development level and energy intensity suppression area increased water consumption,and water-area water consumption increase in overall energy correlation degree.From the perspective of annual per capita water consumption analysis,there is no obvious regularity in water consumption change,but it sometimes inhibits or promotes water consumption change.