耕地数量变化驱动力分析--以四川省为例

影响耕地数量变化的因素错综复杂，用单一的回归分析法不易得到一个满意的模型。以四川省为例，首先用主成分分析法选择主要的影响因素，克服多重共线性问题；然后再对选择的因素建立回归模型，从而对影响耕地数量变化因素的影响力进行定量分析，得到四川省耕地数量变化驱动力主要有四大类因素：经济发展动态因素，政策影响因素，自然灾害因素和农业科技进步因素。并且指出不能只靠政策手段来解决耕地保护问题，需要通过经济、制度和科技相结合的措施才能实现保护耕地的目标。

An Analysis of Driving Force of Cultivated Land Change --Taking Sichuan Province as an Example

The factors influencing the quantity of cultivated land are many and c omplex,so a satisfactory model is hard to make by adopting the common regression method. Taking Sichuan Province as an example, this paper conducts a quantitati ve analysis of the factors which influence the quantity of cultivated land and c oncludes that there are four main factors influencing the quantity of cultivated land in Sichuan Province, namely, economic development, influences of policies, natural disasters, and advances of agricultural science and technology. The pap er also point out that policies alone can not solve the problem of cultivated la nd protection. Rather,it's necessary to take measures combining economy, policy , science and technology to achieve the goal.