1992-2020年京津冀全要素生产率的估算——基于3种估计方法

基于1992—2020年京津冀3地宏观数据，利用索洛余值法、隐性变量法和数据包络分析3种方法，测算京津冀3地全要素生产率水平、增长率以及对经济增长贡献度等重要指标。结果显示：北京全要素生产率水平明显高于天津、河北；不同方法测算的全要素生产率增长率具有相同变化趋势，天津、河北两地的增长率变化趋势较一致，但与北京的增长率变化趋势不一致；京津冀区域的全要素生产率增长乏力，增长出现放缓甚至略微下降的局面；京津冀的经济增长主要来源于要素投入而非全要素生产率的提高；全要素生产率的增长，主要来源于技术进步而非效率提高。

Estimation of Total Factor Productivity in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei Region from 1992 to 2020:Based on Three Estimation Methods

Based on macro data from 1992 to 2020 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, important indicators such as total factor productivity level, total factor productivity growth rate, and total factor productivity contribution to economic growth were calculated using solow residual method, implicit variable method, and data envelopment analysis. The research results show that the total factor productivity level in Beijing is significantly higher than that in Tianjin and Hebei.The growth rate of total factor productivity calculated by different methods has the same trend of change. The trend of total factor productivity growth rate in Tianjin and Hebei is relatively consistent, but it is not consistent with the trend of total factor productivity growth rate in Beijing. The growth of total factor productivity in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is weak, and the growth of total factor productivity has slowed down or even slightly decreased.The economic growth of Beijing Tianjin Hebei mainly comes from factor input rather than the improvement of total factor productivity. At the same time, the growth of total factor productivity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei mainly comes from technological progress rather than efficiency improvement.