上市公司年报业绩预告的信息含量分析——兼论《上市公司信息披露管理办法》的实施效果

运用事件研究法对2007—2009年深沪两市A股年报业绩预告的市场反应进行实证分析,从一个侧面检验《上市公司信息披露管理办法》(以下简称《办法》)的实施效果。实证结果显示,信息公平披露规则的效果并不明显,利用内幕信息进行交易仍然存在。因此,应尽快制订《办法》的配套措施,建立内部知情人定期报告制度;加强自愿预测信息披露的监管,引入信息质量评级制度;积极培育证券分析专业机构,形成基于市场预期的业绩预告比较基准。

Information Content Analysis on Annual Performance Projection of Listed Companies:Concurrently on the Implementation ofAdministrative Measures on Information Disclosure by Listed Companies

The paper analyses empirically the market reaction of the annual performance projection of Shanghai and Shenzhen A Share of 2007—2009,and tests the implementation results of "Administrative Measures on Information Disclosure by Listed Companies". The results show that the effect of fair disclosure of information is not obvious,and to trade with inside information still exists. Therefore,it′s necessary to develop "measures" supporting measures,establish a regular insiders reporting system as soon as possible,strengthen the supervision of the voluntary disclosure of forecast information,introduce information quality rating system,cultivate securities analysis professional bodies,and form the benchmark of performance projection based on market expectations actively.