进出口贸易增长与人民币汇率之间的长期均衡与动态波动分析

本文运用协整关系分析、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型,对进出口贸易与我国汇率之间关系进行的实证分析表明:进出口增长与汇率波动之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,出口贸易与汇率在很大程度上是互为因果的关系—出口和汇率的增长都会引起对方的下降,而且汇率的影响大于出口。从短期来看,汇率的提升会促进出口的增长。近期,汇率的升值显著促进了进口增长,但并没削弱出口,而短期波动的影响不显著。我国出口贸易的增长是由许多非汇率因素促成的,因此仅靠调整汇率解决贸易失衡问题,所起到的作用是有限的。

Study on the Long-term Equilibrium and Short-term Fluctuation between the Trade Growth and RMB Exchange Rate

In accordance with the theory of co-integration and the EC model, this paper measures the relationship between RMB exchange rate and trade. The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among them. Export of trade and exchange rate are reasons each other. In the short-run, the speed of the correction is not fast from the short fluctuation to long-run equilibrium, the import raise the rate and export decease the rate to some extent. At present, the rise of exchange rate promotes the import growth and doesn't affect the export growth,and the effect of the import on the rise of rate is significant. Our country's growth of the export trade is cause by many non-exchange rate factors. Therefore, depending only on adjusting the rate to resolve the problem out of trade balance, the effect is very limited.