淮河生态经济带绿色发展水平测度及空间分异分析

在经济转型期,淮河生态经济带的绿色发展问题凸显,绿色发展水平亟待提升。以2013-2017年淮河生态经济带25个地级市为例,基于绿色发展水平评价体系,采用熵权TOPSIS模型对各市绿色发展水平进行综合测度,并运用空间计量模型和障碍度模型考察其时空格局、空间分异和障碍因子。结果表明:(1)从时序变化看,淮河生态经济带绿色发展水平整体呈现上升趋势。各市的绿色发展水平存在明显的地域差距,呈现“东高西低”的特点,出现较明显的空间分异现象。(2)从全局空间自相关来看,淮河生态经济带绿色发展存在显著的空间集聚的特点,但2013-2017年Moran’s I指数总体上稍有下降,有轻微空间离散的风险。从局域空间自相关来看,绿色发展水平高的地级市在地理空间分布上较为集中,5年间发生跃迁的地市仅有3个,说明淮河生态经济带绿色发展在空间上已形成较为稳定的分布结构。(3)从障碍度分析看,经济增长质量、科技创新能力、社会事业发展已成为制约淮河生态经济带绿色发展水平的普遍问题。

Analysis of Green Development Level Measurement and Spatial Differentiation in Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

During the economic transition period,the green development of the Huaihe River eco-economic zone has become more prominent,and the level of green development needs to be improved.Taking 25 prefecture-level cities in the Huaihe Ecological Economic Belt in 2013-2017 as an example,based on the green development level evaluation system,the TOPSIS model of entropy is used to comprehensively measure the green development level of each city,and the spatial and temporal models and obstacle models are used to investigate its time and space,pattern,spatial differentiation and barrier factors.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of time series changes,the overall development level of the Huaihe River eco-economic belt is on the rise.There are obvious geographical gaps in the green development levels of various cities,which are characterized by“high east and low west”and obvious spatial differentiation.(2)From the perspective of global spatial autocorrelation,the green development of the Huaihe River eco-economic belt has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,but the 2013-2017 Moran’s I index generally declined slightly,with a slight spatial dispersion risk.From the perspective of local spatial autocorrelation,prefecture-level cities with high levels of green development are concentrated in geospatial distribution.There are only three cities that have transitioned in five years,indicating that the green development of the Huaihe River eco-economic belt has been formed a stable distribution structure in space.(3)From the perspective of obstacle analysis,economic growth quality,scientific and technological innovation capability,and social undertaking development have become common problems that restrict the green development level of the Huaihe River ecological economic belt.