金属资源产业绿色转型动力机制和政策仿真研究

从金属资源产业绿色转型的内生驱动机制出发,以基本金属铜为例,运用Vensim PLE软件构建铜产业绿色转型的系统动力学仿真模型。仿真结果表明,金属资源企业环境治理成本呈上升趋势,说明随着铜产品产量增加,相应的废水排放量、废气排放量和固体废弃物排放量均呈现上升趋势;进一步运用系统动力学模型情景演化仿真,Current为常规情景,Current 1为"三废"利用率提高情景,即政府在原有基础上"三废"综合利用率均提高2%,Current 1情景下环境治理成本比Current常规情景下降12.4%;Current 2为企业增加环保技术投入情景,即企业自主提高环保技术投入4%,Current 2情景下环境治理成本比Current常规情景下降5.2%;结果表明,促进金属资源产业绿色转型应从政府环保政策规制和企业自主参与两个方面共同作用,建议细化金属资源产业的环保指标体系和实施标准,提高企业环保门槛,强化企业自主环保意识。

Study on Dynamic Mechanism and Policy Simulation of Green Transformation of Metal Resources Industry

Starting from the intrinsic driving mechanism of the green transformation of metal resources industry,this paper uses the Vensim PLE software to construct the system dynamics simulation model of the green transformation of copper industry.The simulation results show that the cost of environmental management of metal resource enterprises is increasing,which indicates that with the increasing production of copper products,the corresponding wastewater emissions,exhaust emissions and solid waste emissions all show an increasing trend.Further use of system dynamics model scenario evolution simulation,Current is a conventional scenario,Current 1 is a three-waste utilization rate increase scenario,that is,the government has increased the utilization rate of the three wastes on the original basis by 2%,and the environmental management cost in the Current 1 scenario is lower than Current conventional scenario by 12.4%;Current 2 increases the Environmental Protection technology investment scenario for enterprises,that is,the enterprise independently increases the Environmental Protection technology investment by 4%,and the environmental management cost in the Current 2 scenario decreases by 5.2%compared with the Current conventional scenario.The results show that promoting the green transformation of the metal resources industry should play a joint role in terms of government environmental protection policy regulation and enterprise’s independent participation.It is suggested to refine the Environmental Protection index system and implementation standards of the metal resources industry,raise the threshold of environmental protection of enterprises,and strengthen the enterprise’s independent environmental protection consciousness.