基于DPSIR的低碳交通发展评价及障碍因子分析——以北京市为例

为准确衡量城市低碳交通发展水平,在低碳交通发展内涵基础上运用DPSIR框架构建低碳交通发展评价指标体系,明确各指标之间的因果关系;采用熵权TOPSIS评价方法和障碍度模型测算城市低碳交通发展水平,识别不同时期阻碍低碳交通发展的障碍因子,并以北京市为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明,2007—2017年北京市低碳交通发展水平稳步增长,综合评价值从0.3110上升到0.6826,年均增长速度约为8.57%。影响北京市低碳交通发展的主要障碍因子依次是交通运输碳排放强度、环保财政支出占比、公路货物周转量占货物总周转量比重、运营公交车辆数增长率和客运周转量,揭示了北京市低碳交通治理的短板因素,为低碳交通发展政策制定提供决策依据。

Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Diagnoses of Low Carbon Transport Development Based on DPSIR:A Case Study of Beijing

In order to measure the development level of urban low-carbon transportation accurately,based on the analysis of the connotation of low-carbon transportation development,the low-carbon transport development assessment indicator system was established based on the DPSIR framework to clarify the causal relationship between the indicators.The entropy weight TOPSIS evaluation method and obstacle degree model were used to calculate the development level of urban low carbon transportation and identify the obstacle factors that hinder the development of low-carbon transportation in different periods,and an empirical research was operated on the low carbon transport development in Beijing.The research results showed that the development level of low-carbon transportation in Beijing from 2007 to 2017 increased steadily,and the comprehensive evaluation value rose from 0.3110 to 0.6826,with an average annual growth rate of about 8.57%.The main obstacles to the development of low-carbon transport in Beijing were carbon emission intensity of transportation,proportion of environmental protection financial expenditure,the proportion of highway freight turnover to total freight turnover,the growth rate of operating bus vehicles and passenger turnover.It revealed the shortcoming factors of low-carbon transport governance in Beijing,and provided decision-making basis for the policy making of low-carbon transportation development.