| 农业投资与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘耀森,左正强. 农业投资与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析[J]. 经济问题, 2011, 0(8) |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘耀森 左正强 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆三峡学院经济与管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部“春晖计划”项目(S2007-1-63005); 重庆市教育委员会2009年人文社会科学重点项目(09SKM17) |
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| 摘 要： | 在建立向量自回归模型的基础上,运用广义脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解考察农业投资与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结论表明,在1981~2006年的样本区间内,农业投资的各个组成部分在促进农民收入增长中的贡献度和影响力有着显著差异,并且存在着一定的作用时滞。但从长期来看,我国农业投资与农民收入增长之间存在着紧密的联系,随着时间的推移,其作用程度渐趋稳定和显著。因此,在运用农业投资促进农民收入增长的政策选择上,应采取长期政策而非短期政策,并通过建立持续稳定的投资增长机制来保证其促进农民增收的拉动作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业投资 农民收入增长 向量自回归 广义脉冲响应函数 方差分解 |
An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Agricultural Investment and Income Growth of Rural Residents in China |
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| LIU Yao-sen,ZUO Zheng-qiang. An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Agricultural Investment and Income Growth of Rural Residents in China[J]. On Economic Problems, 2011, 0(8) |
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| Authors: | LIU Yao-sen ZUO Zheng-qiang |
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| Affiliation: | LIU Yao-sen,ZUO Zheng-qiang(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the foundation of vector auto-regression model,The paper applies generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition to portray the dynamic correlations between agricultural investment and income growth of rural residents.The result shows that the various components of agricultural investment have great differences in the contribution and influence of promoting the peasant incomes from 1981 to 2006,and there exists the favorite time lag of agricultural investment to income growth of ru... |
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| Keywords: | agricultural investment income growth of rural residents vector auto-regression generalized impulse response function variance decomposition |
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