中国老年人口受教育程度发展趋势前瞻

针对中国教育事业的发展如何影响未来30年老年人口的受教育结构、2050年中国建成现代化强国时老年人口的平均受教育年限是多少等问题进行分析,在运用人口普查以及1%人口抽样调查等数据对中国老年人口教育水平历史演进做出回顾的基础上着重预测未来趋势。结果显示:老年人口在改革开放以来实现了从八成不识字到八成受教育的历史性转变,且男女两性老年人口在受教育程度上的差距趋于缩小;到本世纪中叶,老年人口的平均受教育年限预计可达10年,基本具备高中教育水平,且男女两性老年人口教育不平等的状况将会显著改变,受过高等教育比例快速上升。中国老年人口规模大增长的时代同时也是老年教育水平大提升的时代,这可以为健康老龄化和积极老龄化等创造更有利的发展环境。

The Development Trend of Education Achievement of the Elderly in China

Using data from the census and the 1% population sampling survey, this paper reviews the historical trajectory of elderly people’s educational attainment, and on the basis predicts its future trend, focusing on the influence of China’s education development on elderly people’s education structure in the next 30 years and elderly people’s mean years of schooling by 2050,the year to build a great modern country.The results show that the past three decades have seen a revolutionary transformation in education achievement of China’s elderly population, from nearly 80 percent illiterate to almost 80 percent educated, with the gender disparity in education shrinking in recent years;by the middle of the 21 st century, elderly people’s mean years of schooling will be at around 10 years in China, equivalent to attending the senior high school, with significant changing in gender inequality, and during this period, the proportion of people accepting high-degree education will rise dramatically. Elderly population being knowledgeable could be an important phenomenon in China’s population aging process,which creates a more advantageous development environment for healthy aging and active aging.