东北地区人口流动、居留及落户意愿的影响因素分析

基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,在推拉理论框架下,从个体特征、经济特征和社会融入特征三个维度分析了东北地区人口流动、居留及落户三阶段决策的影响因素。结果表明:东北户籍流动人口以域内流动为主,居留意愿显著高于落户意愿,其中域外流动人口的居留和落户意愿显著高于域内流动人口;户口性质、宅基地权益与人均GDP是影响人口流动决策的主要因素;年轻、已婚、农业户口及高学历人群更倾向于长期居留并落户;承包地可以提高域内居留意愿,但对落户意愿产生抑制;子女随迁是区域外落户的首要考虑因素,参加医疗保险则是区域内落户的主要原因;社会融入特征变量是提升东北流动人口居留意愿的主要因素,经济特征变量与流动人口的落户意愿关系更加密切。

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Population Mobility Decision-making,Willingness to Stay and Willingness to Settle in Northeast China

Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey data in 2017,under the framework of push-pull theory,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of population mobility,residence and willingness to settle in the Northeast from the three dimensions of individual characteristics,economic characteristics and social integration characteristics.The results show that:the floating population with registered permanent residence in the Northeast is dominated by intraregional mobility,the willingness of the floating population in the Northeast region to stay is significantly higher than the willingness to settle down and the willingness to stay and settle down of the floating population outside the Northeast region is higher than that of the floating population in the region;the nature of the household registration,the situation of the homestead and the per capita GDP are the main factors affecting the migration decision;young,married,and agricultural household registration people with high academic qualifications are more inclined to stay long-term and settle down;having contracted land can increase the willingness to stay in the area,but it inhibits the willingness to settle;the migration of children is the primary consideration for the floating population to settle outside the region,medical insurance is the main reason for migrants to settle in the region;the social integration characteristic variable is the main factor to enhance the willingness of the migrant population in the Northeast,and the economic characteristic variables are more closely related to the migrants’willingness to settle.