延续与变化:从七普公报初探少数民族人口发展

依托第七次人口普查公报,结合以往历次人口普查数据,从人口规模增长变动、增速变化、地区分布等方面考察和分析我国少数民族人口发展的特点和趋势。研究发现:我国少数民族人口规模和占比持续增长,但增长趋势地区差异明显;少数民族人口增速减缓,各地区增速分化差异大;少数民族人口离散趋势不断增强,大杂居基本格局未变,西东中的梯度分布格局进一步强化;城镇化和人口流动是引起少数民族人口地区增长变动和分布格局变化的重要力量,城镇化水平和流动人口能见度更高的东部地区成为少数民族人口快速增长的重地。东西部地区少数民族人口的动态变化过程,既是少数民族人口参与城市发展,共享改革发展成果的有力体现,也是各地区民族人口交往交流交融、共同发展的重要表征。未来应深度开发普查数据,加强少数民族人口研究,持续关注少数民族人口高质量发展,助推铸牢中华民族共同体意识。

Continuity and Change:A Preliminary Study on the Population Development for Ethnic Groups from the Seventh Census

Based on data extracted from newly released Bulletin of the Seventh National Population Census for both national-and provincial-level units, combination with data from previous censuses of China, this paper analyzes the characteristics and trend of the ethnic groups’ deve-lopment from population size, growth rate and regional distribution.The results show that the population size and proportion of ethnic groups in China continue to increase, but there are apparent region differentiation.The growth rate of the ethnic groups has slowed down, and the growth rate varies greatly across regions. The population dispersion trend of ethnic groups has been increasing,the basic pattern of“more ethnic groups live together”has not changed,and the gradient distribution pattern of the western and eastern regions has been further strengthened.Urbanization and migration are two of important forces that drive the changes of regional growth and distribution pattern of ethnic groups. The eastern regions with higher urbanization level and higher floating population visibility are the major areas with rapid growth of ethnic groups. The dynamic change process of the ethnic groups in the eastern and western regions is not only a strong reflection of the ethnic groups’ participation in urban development and their sharing of the achievement of reform and development,but also an important representation of the interaction,communication,integration and common development of ethnic groups. In the future,studies on population growth for ethnic groups should be enriched further through deeply mining census data,in the context of the high-quality development,to contribute to Consolidating the Sense of Chinese National Community.