出口机会与进口竞争对工业机器人企业的叠加影响：基于出口持续时间的视角

工业机器人企业是中国推动制造业数字化革命、抢占国际分工制高点战略的主力军，然而其出口持续时间平均不足1年，需引起高度关注。本文基于2000-2015年中国海关数据库和工业企业数据库的匹配数据，运用Cox风险模型分析了出口机会增大和进口竞争加剧对工业机器人企业出口持续时间的影响和作用机制。结果表明，出口机会增大更有利于延长企业出口持续时间，进口竞争加剧则提高了企业的退出率，这一结论在产品多样化程度低、产品核心度低、行业竞争小和市场集中度低的企业中尤为明显；出口机会与进口竞争，主要是通过企业生产率和技术创新的中介作用影响企业的出口持续时间；面对双重叠加影响，工业机器人企业应充分利用产品间的技术关联效应提高出口持续性。

The Superposition Effect of Export Opportunity and Import Competition on Industrial Robot Enterprises:Based on the Perspective of Export Duration

Industrial robot companies are the main force driving the digital revolution in manufacturing in China.However,their export duration is less than one year on average,which needs to be paid high attention.Based on the matching data of China s Customs database and Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database during 2000-2015,this paper uses Cox risk model to analyze the impact and mechanism of increasing export opportunities and increasing import competition on the export duration of industrial robot enterprises.The results show that the increase of export opportunity is more conducive to prolonging the duration of enterprises export,while the increase of import competition increases the risk rate of enterprises.This conclusion is especially obvious in the enterprises with low degree of product diversification,low product core,small industry competition and low market concentration.Export opportunity and import competition mainly affect the duration of industrial robot export through the intermediary effect of productivity and technological innovation;Facing the double superimposed effects,industrial robot enterprises should make full use of the technology proximity effect of related products to improve the export duration,and this technology proximity effect is particularly beneficial to enterprises with high relevance and low core.