社会保障、包容性增长与居民消费升级

包容性增长是经济发展的最终目标,社会保障制度的不断完善,在消除贫困和促进居民消费方面发挥着重要作用,是包容性增长的有效手段。基于2010—2018年CFPS数据,以生命周期理论为基础构建理论模型,运用面板分位数、反事实估计、PSM-DID等方法探究社会保障对居民消费升级的影响。研究发现不同类型社会保障对居民消费的影响存在异质性,相较于医疗保险和政府补助,养老保险对增加居民消费倾向有积极作用,各类社会保障均有利于居民消费结构由食品支出向发展型或享受型消费升级,且对农村居民和低收入群体消费结构升级有更显著的正向作用,表明社会保障促进了中国的包容性增长。

Social Security,Inclusive Growth and Household Consumption Upgrade

Inclusive growth is the ultimate goal of economic development.The continuous improvement of the social security system plays an important role in eradicating poverty and promoting household consumption,and is an effective means of inclusive growth.Based on CFPS data from 2010 to 2018,this paper constructs a theoretical model based on the life cycle theory,and uses panel quantity,counterfactual estimation,PSM-DID and other methods to explore the impact of social security on residents’consumption upgrading.It is found that the impact of different types of social security on residents’consumption is heterogeneous.Compared with medical insurance and government subsidies,pension insurance has a positive effect on increasing residents’propensity to consume.All types of social security are conducive to the shift from food expenditure to developmental or enjoyment oriented consumption,and have a more significant positive effect on the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents and low-income groups,which indicates that social security promotes China’s inclusive growth.