CHALLENGER: FINE-TUNING THE ODDS UNTIL SOMETHING BREAKS

The Challenger disaster illustrates the effects of repeated successes, gradual acclimatization, and the differing responsibilities of engineers and managers. Past successes and acclimatization alter decision-makers’ beliefs about probabilities of future success. Fine-tuning processes result from engineers’ and managers’ pursuing partially inconsistent goals while trying to learn from their experiences. Fine-tuning reduces probabilities of success, and it continues until a serious failure occurs.