CHALLENGER: FINE-TUNING THE ODDS UNTIL SOMETHING BREAKS |
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Authors: | William H. Starbuck Frances J. Milliken |
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Affiliation: | New York University, New York, USA |
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Abstract: | The Challenger disaster illustrates the effects of repeated successes, gradual acclimatization, and the differing responsibilities of engineers and managers. Past successes and acclimatization alter decision-makers’ beliefs about probabilities of future success. Fine-tuning processes result from engineers’ and managers’ pursuing partially inconsistent goals while trying to learn from their experiences. Fine-tuning reduces probabilities of success, and it continues until a serious failure occurs. |
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