Optimal risk adoption: a real options approach

Summary. This study develops a real options approach for analyzing the optimal risk adoption policy in an environment where the adoption means a switch from one stochastic flow representation into another. We establish that increased volatility does not necessarily decelerate investment, as predicted by the standard literature on real options, once the underlying volatility of the state variable is made endogenous. We prove that for a decision maker with a convex (concave) objective function, increased post-adoption volatility increases (decreases) the expected cumulative present value of the post-adoption profit flow, which consequently decreases (increases) the option value of waiting and, therefore, accelerates (decelerates) current investment.Received: 12 October 2001, Revised: 4 December 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: O32, G30, D92, C61. Correspondence to: Luis H.R. AlvarezConstructive comments from an anonymous referee are acknowledged. The financial support from the Foundation for the Promotion of the Actuarial Profession (Aktuaaritoiminnan Kehittämissäätiö) to Luis H. R. Alvarez is gratefully acknowledged. Both authors are grateful for the financial support from The Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation.