THE REGULATION OF MIGRATION IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: CHINA'S HUKOU SYSTEM |
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| Authors: | SHUMING BAO ÖRN B. BODVARSSON JACK W. HOU YAOHUI ZHAO |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Bao: China Data Center, University of Michigan, 1810 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor MI 48109‐1106;2. Lab for Urban and Regional Analysis, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China. Phone 734 647 9610, Fax 734 764 5540, E‐mail sbao@ umich.edu;3. Bodvarsson: Department of Economics, Department of Management, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN 56301‐4498;4. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Germany. Phone 320 308 2225, Fax 320 308 2228, E‐mail obbodvarsson@stcloudstate.edu;5. Hou: Department of Economics, California State University—Long Beach, 120 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840;6. School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin, China. Phone 562 985 4710, Fax 562 985 1121, E‐mail jackhou@csulb.edu |
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| Abstract: | Unlike most countries, China regulates internal migration. Access to public schools, health services, low‐cost housing, and attractive jobs by those who do not have local registration (Hukou) is often limited. Coincident with the deepening of economic reforms, Hukou has gradually been relaxed since the 1980s, contributing to a migration surge. In this study of interprovincial Chinese migration, we address two questions. First, what is a sensible way of incorporating Hukou into theoretical and empirical models of migration in China? Second, to what extent has Hukou influenced the scale and structure of migration? We incorporate two different measures of Hukou into a modified gravity model nuanced to fit the Chinese case: (1) the migrant's perceived probability of securing Hukou and (2) the perceived joint probability of securing Hukou and a job available only to a registered person. Our tests include a much wider variety of controls especially important for the Chinese case. Using census data for 1985–90, 1995–2000, and 2000–05, we find that migration is very sensitive to Hukou, with the greatest sensitivity occurring during the middle period. (JEL J61) |
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