农村居民多维收入流动、税费负担及政策效应——基于面板数据PSM-DID方法的研究

收入流动性是从动态视角衡量居民收入分配公平与否的重要指标,其变动程度受到税收等因素的影响。文章基于2001年至2014年季度和年度面板数据,依据多维收入流动指标,测算出了地区之间农村居民绝对和相对收入流动程度,并利用双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID）和工具变量估计法研究了农村税费改革及其他经济社会因素对农村居民收入流动性的影响。研究发现：（1）农村税费改革的政策效应非常显著,实施农业税费减免政策的地区,其农民的绝对收入流动性显著高于未改革地区;（2）税费负担对绝对收入流动性的影响呈现出"倒U型"特征,即当税费负担率为0.167%时,绝对收入流动性达到最大值,若进一步增加税费负担,收入流动性则呈现下降趋势;（3）税费支出变动对相对收入流动性的影响也通过了5%的显著性检验;（4）农村劳动力文化结构、工资收入比重等家庭特征因素对收入流动性的影响具有较大的地区异质性。有鉴于此,在进一步完善税费征收项目监管的同时,依据家庭及地区特征实施差异化的支农惠农政策,切实减轻农民负担,增强农村居民收入流动,实现地区间收入分配均衡。

Multidimensional Income Mobility of Rural Residents,Tax Burden and Policy Effects:The study of panel data based on PSM-DID method

Income mobility was an important index to measure the justice of resident income distribution from the dynamic perspective and the degree of its change was affected by tax and other factors. This paper adopted a quarterly and annual panel data of regions from 2001 to 2014 in our country and according to the multidimensional income mobility index, we calculated the absolute and relative income mobility among different regions. Through PSM-DID and instrumental variable estimation, we examined the influence of rural tax and fee reform and other economic and social factors on the income mobility of rural residents. The study found that:(1)The policy efficiency of rural tax and fee reform was highly significantly. The regions that had implement rural tax and fee credits that absolute income mobility of rural residents was significantly higher than that in non reform areas.(2)The influence of tax burden on absolute income mobility presents a characteristic of inverted "U", When the tax burden rate was 0.167%, absolute income mobility would reach the maximum, if making more the tax burden, income mobility would have downside.(3)The impact of changes in tax expenses on relative income mobility was also examined by a significant 5%.(4)The cultural structure and the proportion of income of rural labor and some regional economic factors like the income of rural residents had a greater heterogeneous effect on the income mobility. Thus, it was necessary to improve the supervision on the collection items of taxes and fees and at the same time. According to implement differentiated support and preferential policies in agricultural field based on family and regional factors, we could effectively reduce the burden on farmers, increase the income mobility of rural residents and realize the balanced distribution of income among regions.