人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响效应研究——基于中国二元经济结构演变的视角

理论分析表明，二元经济结构下人口老龄化能够通过要素禀赋结构调整和社会福利改善对城乡居民收入产生不同的收入效应和替代效应，进而影响城乡收入不平等。利用中国2000-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验发现：中国人口老龄化显著的扩大了城乡收入不平等，但要素禀赋结构和社会福利水平对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等影响效应不同；随着对老年人口供养负担的加重，社会福利支出对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等主要表现为替代效应，城市偏向的社会福利支出使得农村因照料老人引起的劳动力供给减少扩大了城乡收入不平等；而要素禀赋结构的转变则使得老龄化主要表现为收入效应，劳动力相对资本的稀缺性导致转移劳动力工资上涨，从而缩小了城乡收入不平等；随着老龄化深化，通过社会福利改善和要素禀赋结构调整能够有效抵消老龄化对城乡收入不平等的负面影响；研究也证实了二元经济结构的优化和农业规模化经营对城乡收入不平等的缩小作用，而失业率上升和城乡投资差距却会加剧城乡收入不平等。

The Effect of Population Aging on Rural-Urban Income Inequality:Based on the Perspective of the Evolution of China's Dual Economic Structure

Theoretical analysis shows that, under the dual economic structure, aging will produce income effects and substitution effects by changing factor endowment structure and social welfare. Using an empirical test of panel data in China during the past 2000-2014 years, we found that the population aging of China is remarkably and steadily widening the income inequality between urban and rural areas, however there shows different effects of endowment structure and social welfare. The urban bias characteristics of social welfare expenditure lead to the substitution effect of aging higher than income effect, thus the decreasing in family labor force caused by caring for the elderly has enlarged the income inequality. However, the change of factor endowment structure leads to the income effect of aging higher than the substitution effect, and the scarcity of labor relative capital leads to higher wages of transferred labor force, thus narrowing the income inequality between urban and rural areas. With the deepening of aging, it can counterbalance the negative effect of aging through the improvement of social welfare and the adjustment of factor endowment structure significantly. The research also proves that the optimization of the dual economic structure and large-scale agricultural operation have narrowing effects on the income inequality, however we can't ignore the unemployment rates rising and a widening gap between urban and rural investment can also exacerbate income inequality.