消费不足、投资过度与偏向性金融政策

自1996年以来，中国消费产出比与投资产出比分别经历着一降一升的过程，致使经济最终呈现了两个重要性特征：消费不足和投资过度。本文通过在动态随机一般均衡模型中，构建投资偏向性金融政策和内生化趋势性差异特征的方式，分析消费和投资经历的阶段性变化及两个特征的成因和后果。利用中国1996年1季度至2014年4季度的六组季度数据作为观测变量，采用贝叶斯方法估计模型参数，并利用脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分析议题。结果表明：（1）持续稳定有效的投资偏向性金融政策是促成消费产出比快速下降、投资产出比快速上升的主因，进而造成消费不足与投资过度；（2）生产技术进步不仅可以促使消费产出比上升，同时有效抑制了投资过度；（3）家户部门消费偏好的变化和投资的短期调整，是解释投资产出比和投资消费比波动的主因。为此，建立和完善市场化投资环境，促进创新活动，可以有效地抑制过度投资并提高消费产出比。本文研究对科学理解中国经济波动及变化趋势，实现平稳可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。

Inadequate Consumption,Excessive Investment and Biased Financial Policies

Since 1996, China's consumption-output ratio has gone through a fall, while investment-output ratio has gone through a rise. Resulting in the economy ultimately presents two important features:Inadequate consumption and excessive investment. In the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper constructs the investment bias financial policy and endogenized trend characteristic, analyzes the stage change of consumption and investment experience, and the causes and consequences of the two characteristics. Bayesian method was used to estimate the model parameters using six sets of quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2014 as the observed variables. The model was analyzed by impulse response and variance decomposition method, and so on. The results show that:(1) The stable and effective investment biased financial policy is the main cause of the rapid decline in the ratio of consumption to output and the rapid increase in the ratio of investment to output, which leads to the shortage of consumption and excessive investment; (2) Technological progress of production can not only promote consumption-output ratio, but also control excessive investment;(3) The change of household consumption preference and the short-term adjustment of investment are the main reasons to explain the fluctuation of investment-output ratio and investment-consumption ratio. To this end, the establishment and improvement of market-oriented investment environment, promote innovation activities, can effectively curb over-investment and increase the ratio of consumption to output. This study is of great theoretical and practical significance for the scientific understanding of China's economic fluctuation and its changing trend, and achieving stable and sustainable development.