中国代际收入流动性估计:基于随机系数模型

文章利用 1989-2011 年的中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据对中国的代际收入流动进行了分析。在充分控制生命周期偏误的前提下,文章通过构建随机系数模型进一步修正了模型设定偏误对估计结果的影响。实证结果表明,全国总体的代际收入弹性为 0.6 左右,农村内部为 0.7 左右,城市内部为 0.5 左右。我们发现,生命周期偏误倾向于导致低估代际收入弹性,但模型设定偏误对估计结果的影响方向并不确定。由于解决生命周期偏误的措施无法解决模型设定偏误,以住的研究有可能低估农村的代际流动,高估城市的代际流动。

Estimation of Intergenerational Income Mobility in China: Based on Random Coefficient Model

This paper investigates intergenerational income mobility in China using 1989-2011 household survey data from China Health and Nutrition Survey. We restrict the age of father and son and add polynomial of age and use IV estimation to control life-cycle bias. After that, in order to overcome the effect of model specification error, we build a random coefficient model for individual income. We estimate the model using control function method and treat the average effect of father's income as intergenerational income elasticity. The results show that the intergenerational elasticity is around 0.6 for the overall sample, 0.5 for urban and 0.7 for rural. The results also indicate that life-cycle bias may cause downward estimation. However, the method trying to eliminate life-cycle bias cannot eliminate specification error at the same time. This means standard specification of intergenerational income mobility model will have specification error and the estimate of intergenerational income elasticity will be inconsistent. According to our results, we thought there may be a down ward bias on intergenerational income elasticity in rural and a upward bias on intergenerational income elasticity in urban in previous research.