中国经济新常态的量化识别与形成原因

新常态指经济增长速度出现了结构性变化并呈现新的稳态形式,是当前和未来一段时间我国经济发展的国家战略判断。文章尝试基于条件马尔可夫状态转移模型对自从改革开放以来中国经济进行划分,量化识别中国经济进入新常态的历史时刻,为从经验分析角度深入分析新常态奠定基础。实证结果显示,1995年第2季度至2005年第4季度为中国经济旧常态时期,2008年第1季度至今为中国经济新常态时期,其余为过渡期。此外,文章进一步应用时变参数模型从要素禀赋视角探讨了中国经济新常态形成原因,发现各要素对经济增长的作用强度并未发生较大改变,经济新常态的形成主要源自于就业人口与全要素生产率的增长率下降。

Quantitative Identification and Causes of the New Normal of Chinese Economy

The new normal is that the rate of economic growth has changed structurally and presents a new steady state. The new normal is a national strategy judge to the current and future economic development in China, which highlights the importance of its in-depth study. Based on condition Markov state transition model, this paper attempts to divide the China economy since the reform and opening and quantitative identifies when Chinese economy has entered the new normal, which will lay the foundation for the empirical analysis of the new normal. The empirical results show:the Chinese economy is in the old normal during the second quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2005 and in the new normal since the first quarter of 2008; during the remaining time the Chinese economy is the transition period. In addition, from the perspective of factor endowment, this paper uses the time-varying parameter model to explore the causes of the new normal form of China's economy. The results show:the intensity of the factors to economic growth has not changed greatly; the formation of the new economic norm is mainly from the decline of the growth rate of employed population and total factor productivity.