中央银行利润、财政铸币税和最优铸币税的探讨

中央银行的利润主要受机会成本铸币税以及转移的机会成本铸币税二者共同作用的影响。文章定义的财政铸币税（fiscal seigniorage）包括央行上缴的利润,扣除对央行支付的利息,再加上央行对政府存款所支付的利息,以及央行对政府债权和政府存款的变动等。文章理论分析认为央行利润、财政铸币税和通货膨胀率存在非线性关系,在MIU模型下,铸币税呈U型特征或"倒U型"特征,这与铸币税因子和货币需求函数的变动特征有关。ARDL模型实证结果显示我国中央银行货币铸币税、央行利润和财政铸币税的变动存在"U型"特征;转移的机会成本铸币税呈现"倒U型"特征;机会成本铸币税既没有"U型"特征,也没有"倒U型"特征。以MIU模型中的货币需求函数为前提,铸币税的U型或倒U型特征取决于铸币税因子的变动特征。

An exploration on the central bank's profits,fiscal seigniorage and the optimal seigniorage in China

This paper mainly focuses on the formation mechanism of the central bank's profits and the fiscal seigniorage, and measures the profits of China's central bank and fiscal seigniorage. The opportunity cost seigniorage and the transferred opportunity cost seigniorage are important factors affecting the profits of the central bank. Fiscal seigniorage of this paper includes the turned over profits by the central bank, after deducting the interests paid to the central bank, plus the interests paid on the government deposits, and the changes of the central bank claims on the government and the government deposits. Based on the MIU model, this paper discusses the nonlinear relationship between the central bank's profits, fiscal seigniorage and inflation, the results show in the MIU model, the seigniorage is a "u-shape" or "inverted u" feature, which is determined by the movements of the seigniorage factor and the money demand function. The empirical results of the ARDL model show that there exist U-shape features in terms of monetary seigniorage, the profits of the central bank and the fiscal seigniorage in China; Transferred opportunity cost seigniorage has the inverted "u-shape" features. The opportunity cost seigniorage have neither "inverted u shape", nor "u-shape" features. Under MIU money demand function, the "u-shape" or inverted u-shape feature of seigniorage is determined by the seigniorage factor.