后危机时代企业现金流风险预警系统研究

良好的现金流是企业正常运营的基本保证。全球性金融危机的根源之一就是各类企业,尤其是金融机构的现金流出现断裂。因此,建立有效的现金流风险预警系统有助于企业规避风险,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文提出,科学性、系统性、全面性、同趋势性以及经济性是构建现金流风险预警系统的5个重要原则。在上述原则下,本文将现金流风险预警系统所需指标分为5大类,即获现能力指标、偿债能力指标、盈利能力指标、财务弹性指标以及发展能力指标。随后,又将这5类指标分解为20个细化指标。为将上述指标形成一个有机整体,本文认为,德尔菲法等主观赋权法与因子分析法、主成分分析法、聚类分析法等等客观赋权法在预警指标赋权过程中的作用十分显著。最后,本文讨论了有效构建现金流风险预警系统所需要注意的4个问题。

A Study on the system for Cash Flow Risk Early Warning after Global Financial Crisis

Good cash flow is essential to maitain the normal operation of enterprises.One of the main causes for the financial crisis in the global scale is that the cash flows for those enterprises,especially financial institutions,have broken.Therefore,it’s of great practical significance to establish an effective cash flow risk warning system which helps companies avoid the financial risk.This paper brings out 5 basic principles for the development of the system which are scientific,systematic,comprehensive,economic and consistent principle respectively.Under those principles above,this paper divides the indicators for cash flow risk into 5 classes which are indicators for the capacity to obtaining cash flow,indicators for solvency,indicators for profitability,indicators of financial flexibility,and indicators for development.Subsequently,the 5 categories of indicators have been divided into 20 detailed indicators.To integrate those 20 indicators,this paper employs subjective weighting methods such as Delphi and objective weighting methods including factor analysis,principal component analysis,and cluster analysis in the process of weighing those indicators for early warning.Finally,the article discusses 4 issues on the development of the system for cash flow risk early warning.